In a new episode of Cold War 2.0Russia forcefully halted NATO expansion by invading Ukraine, with financial support of China. Although the EU and US denounced the "war crimes" as multiple cities were bombed, several countries opted less severe sanctions to keep importing diamonds and luxury goods and gas (and their loaned money) from Russia, seemingly creating a new iron curtain in Eastern Europe.
Planners
Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, CIA, NATO?
Participants
Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, DPR, LPR
Sponsors
NATO, US, China, Iran
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022 when Russia launched a large-scale "Special Military Operation" against its south-west neighbour Ukraine involving forces from western Russia, Belarus and Crimea,[1] a severe escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started in 2014 with the CIA/NATO-sponsored 2014 Ukraine coup.[2]
Russian president Vladimir Putin escalated talks with ultimatums to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in 2021, but invaded when Russia's demands were not met.[3][4] There is, however, a certain probability that this move was also necessary to preempt a military offensive by the Ukrainian forces against the Donbass region.[5][6][7][8] In addition, on 18th February, Ukrainian forces increased their shelling of the separatist regions significantly; with more than a thousand, possibly several thousand shells fired on areas inhabited by civilians that live in the region.[9][10][11][12]
Before the start of the invasion, rearmament with nuclear weapons was brought up as a possibility by Ukrainian government officials, along with other statements to the effect that nuclear disarmament was a mistake, dating back at least to Oleksandr Turchynov in 2019.[13]
Gravitas - 2022 - The basic official narrative explained with history but omitting relevant geopolitical realities (also omitting for example, what Zelensky's promises were before he was elected, which was to make peace in the east [15][16])
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties.
Five years later, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve.
The "Omicron" variant was the subject of much fearmongering, and was used as a reason for people to get injected, but official statistics were showing that the COVID jabs actually increased risk of omicron infection.Template:CnJustin Trudeau was spectacularly demonstrating government overreach in response to the 2022 Freedom Convoy. For these reason a change of topic was highly opportune.
Many outcomes and consequences must have been war-gamed before the escalation. The civil war in Ukraine, which is also a US/Nato/Russia proxy war, was a lingering conflict since 2014 and was meant to be dialed up at some point, so the results may not all be totally unintended. That Putin will act and send the army when a Russian population comes under intense heavy weapons fire was absolutely clear to everybody since the 2008 conflict with Georgia.[18]
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“[...] as I have stated since the outbreak of the war, in my opinion, the Ukraine war is a U.S. proxy war not against Russia, but against Europe. It is the launchpad for a continent-wide destabilisation project that will create conflict zone conditions across Europe. It will divide the EU against itself, it will de-industrialize the continent and turn it into another laboratory for the imposition of severe, neoliberal austerity policies that will wipe out all, except the largest private sector players and basically re-feudalise Europe.” Shahid Bolsen (April 5, 2023) [19]
Since the end of the Cold War[20]NATO is getting closer to Russia.
Multiple sides prepared for this war, including a propaganda war by the Ifs, a UK and EUDeep state faction, the Ukrainian regime installed after the Euromaidan and Russia's leadership.
Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting Russian irredentism and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies."[21]
A Dutch investigation by journalistTim Hofman revealed the Europeaninternet providers actually decided within one day to make telephones calls - to Ukraine from the EU - free of charge. The same European Telecom providers refused the same procedures for at least 8 months into the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. Upon investigation by the same journalist, at least one Dutch telecom provider lied on camera that a "middle-man actually requested the 26 EU countries" to immediately order telecom companies within one day after the Russian invasion. After verifying this procedure with multiple Dutch Ministerial Departments, this handler was denied to have ever existed, playing questions as to who or whom is deep lobbying to deny Palestinians cheaper telecommunication systems, but grant them to Ukrainians at instant.[22]
Putin's speech on 21 February 2022, reiterating many points of his July 2021 article about the "Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians",[23] which was made required reading in the Russian army.[24] Sky News.
Eerily Accurate Predictions about Military Timeline
The Washington D.C-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released a strategic paper on the 13th of January previewing the invasion.
The paper argued the US military to openly supply Ukraine with a "Twenty-First Century Lend-Lease Act" to provide Ukraine with war materiel at no cost and the CIA to plan and execute covert operations (ironically called "special operations" in the paper) while letting the Ukrainians stall for time. The paper accurately predicted the Russian strategy and viable Ukrainian responses (which CIA funding and training undoubtedly helped with).[25]
Execution
Clicking on this GIF image will show the execution of Russia's military execution in the first months.
Russia entered northern Kiev in 2 weeks in a full scale blitzkrieg. The attempt at Kiev was thought of as a diversion by Scott Ritter, in order to force Ukraine to split focus and power to some extent away from the main battle line.[26] A Russian military commander later clarified that they thought the mood in the population would swing in their favor, but nothing of the sort did happen even remotely, so they adjusted strategy accordingly.[27]
Apart from the NATO countries, Australia, Japan and South Korea gave weapons to Ukraine.[28]
According to both sides, over 36,000 foreign mercenaries alone have joined the war as well.[29]
The Mozart Group was a private military company operating in Ukraine during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Mozart Group was composed of "Western volunteers"
It was co-founded in 2022 by Andrew Milburn, a retired U.S. Marine colonel Deputy Commander of Special Operations Command Central and Andrew Bain, also a former U.S. Marine colonel.
The Mozart Group ceased operations in January 2023 after running short of funds. During its last months, it had also been confronting mounting operational difficulties.- Forces News - April 2022.
Erik Prince, former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, founder of the private military company Blackwater was reported to be planning to establish a $10 billion PMC in Ukraine.[30]. The plan was reported by Time magazine to be stonewalled by elements in the Joe Biden administrations and CIA officers arresting Prince his associates in Washington D.C.
The Russian-based Wagner Group has been accused of trying to assassinate President Zelenskyy in Kiev, before a chaotic "coup attempt" of the entire Russian Military apparatus and therefore the course of the war, with its entire leadership suffering a aerial premature death.[31]
NATO
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We were left by ourselves. Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody. Who is ready to give Ukraine guarantees of NATO membership? Honestly, everybody is afraid”
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“I asked them – are you with us?” Zelensky said. “They answered that they are with us, but they don’t want to take us into the alliance. I’ve asked 27 leaders of Europe, if Ukraine will be in NATO, I’ve asked them directly — all are afraid and did not respond
We were left by ourselves. Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody. Who is ready to give Ukraine guarantees of NATO membership? Honestly, everybody is afraid” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, RT (24 February 2022) [32]
Ukraine has been left to fend for itself according to President Zelenskyy, with NATO refusing to enter Ukraine according to him, upon request. The Ukrainian president even publicly suggested to negotiate for Swiss-styled neutrality to not join NATO per law.[33] This appears to pave the way more for military spending into the 2020s.[34]
NATO openly ships weapons (and credit) in support of Ukraine.[35]
At the end of April 2022, Rheinmetall wanted to send 88 Leopard 1 to Ukraine (along with other numbers for other weapons systems).[36][37][38] The use of the number 88 and it's connotation and symbology was noted by Florian Rötzer.[39][40] The Chief Operating Officer for Rheinmetall get's lost for four days in mid May 2022.[41][42] While German press writes mostly clueless articles about the matter, a Swiss publication notes: "Kutz (Thorsten Kutz) may have been an appealing kidnapping target for Russian agents because of his insider knowledge."[43] (in another incident, possibly unrelated, the drinks at a social gathering of the SPD are spiked in July 2022)[44][45][46]
There are multiple former CIA personnel supporting both[47][48] sides, placing questions what their purpose is. * Postal workers in Poland were to be trained by soldiers to use weapons following the war.[49]Dmitry Medvedev, once regarded as a liberal and technocrat,[50][51] has changed his rethoric in foreign affairs significantly.[52][53][54]
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“The bitter truth is that Washington's foreign policy establishment never actually considered Zelensky - or his predecessor Poroshenko - to be allies or partners of the United States. Overflowing with a toxic mix of ignorance, arrogance, and extreme cynicism, Washington's elites have always viewed Ukraine as a tool to "regime-change" a Russia that, after its post-Yeltsin recovery, would no longer take its direction from them. The false gods of American exceptionalism are jealous ones indeed.” Daniel McAdams (26 February 2022) [55]
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“Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks, but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people” Joe Biden (2 March 2022) [56]
Russia
A former Russian general interviewed for the German version of RT,[57] based on his own analysis, said that most likely the whole of Ukraine will be claimed by Russia, since: "If even one square meter of land remains under the rule of the current Kiev regime, it will immediately be filled with weapons, and they will fire from there at Russia, at the Russians."
On 21 September 2022, Vladimir Putin, in a speech to the Russian people, announced the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine:[58][59][60]
In an exclusive interview on CGTN, Alfred de Zayas, UN's first independent expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, argues that colour revolutions are "all illegal," violating the UN Charter and customary international law. "An imperial arrogance and narcissism" is being revealed, says de Zayas, and "the poor Ukrainian people are now paying for this." China Global Television Network, 2 March 2022.
The EU decreed as of March, 2 that "distribution" of RT or Sputnik news is forbidden.[63] Russia responded by expelling German journalists from their Deutsche Welle office in Moscow.[64]
China denounced the use of the word "invasion" and accused the United States of agitating for war, and refused to vote for military action against Russia in the UN/Security Council.[66]
This geopolitical angle was not discussed widely in western corporate media, a continuation of a Cold War 2.0, where Russia and (since the 2010s) China have been working together to form a geopolitical force against the EU and the US.[67]
China increased their imports from Russia, effectively halting financial consequences for the first stages of the war.[68]
In October 2022, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly voted to condemn Russia (resolution was supported by 143 countries, while 35 states - including China and India - abstained.[69]
Italy and Belgium refused severe sanctions for Russian banking as "diamonds" and "luxury clothing" were deemed more important than Ukrainian lives.[70]
With China backing Russia in the UN Security Council, Ukraine appeared to be facing the same fate of African countries during the the imperialism of the 1900s as merely a toy in geopolitical games.[71]
Nord Stream is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany.
In 2011, Nord Stream AG started evaluation of an expansion project consisting of two additional lines (later named Nord Stream 2) to increase the overall annual capacity up to 110 billion m3 (3.9 trillion cu ft). Following this invasion, certification of NS2 was suspended indefinitely by Germany.
Fear of counter-sanctions
File:Russia EU 2022-energy embargo.pngThis is auto-translated text of a Telegram post in Russian. The text was shared on the German version of RT on 12th March 2022, writing: "A usually well-informed journalist writes on Telegram, citing the Russian Foreign Ministry".[72][73] It could be understood as an answer to a Foreign Affairs article from 25th February 2022.[74]
Germany imports 30% of its oil and 50% of its gas supply from Russia, making it vulnerable to counter-sanctions and depleting its own reserves as oil and gas prices soared.[75]
Energy Crisis
A Russia–EUgas dispute escalated in March 2022. The EU refused to pay Russia's Gazprom (after Russia tried to counter sanctions by ordering payment in Rubles[76]) as a way of countering the economic diplomacy of sanctions of the European countries that almost caused the Russian Central Bank to collapse.[77] In June, Russia cut the flow of gas by more than half, and continued to stop it and resume it by half or more for at least 8 months. On 26 September of the same year, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines both ruptured with evidence of sabotage[78], worsening an energy crisis in Western Europe that got increasingly worse in 2021. There events fitted conspicuously well with the long planned supranational deep state strategy to dismantle industrial economies under the pretext of a green agenda.[79]
The war in Ukraine has raged for over a year at great cost to the Ukrainian people and leading to greater instability worldwide. The urgent need is for a ceasefire and peace talks. We oppose the UK government’s plans to provide long range cruise missiles, drones and fighter plane training to the Ukrainian military.
The Tory government is leading the West’s effort to escalate the war in Ukraine. If delivered, these will be the first long range missiles any government has sent to Ukraine. Britain has more special forces in Ukraine than any other country in a war it claims not to be involved in.
These actions will only prolong the war and the suffering of the Ukrainian people, and they risk a wider, potentially nuclear, confrontation with Russia. Even senior US foreign policy figures admit there is no prospect of an all-out victory for either side.
We endorse the views of the recent letter in the New York Times, where former diplomats and military figures argued that this is not a war that can be won and peace is a necessity now:
“The immediate cause of this disastrous war in Ukraine is Russia’s invasion. Yet the plans and actions to expand NATO to Russia’s borders served to provoke Russian fears. And Russian leaders made this point for 30 years. A failure of diplomacy led to war. Now diplomacy is urgently needed to end the Russia-Ukraine War before it destroys Ukraine and endangers humanity.”
Rather than fanning the flames of war, our government should be backing growing international calls for peace negotiations and demanding a ceasefire and end to hostilities.
On 17 June 2023, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa tweeted:
Today we are at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg to hold peace talks with President Putin of the Russian Federation as part of the African Peace Initiative.[86]
“This war has to have an end… It must be settled through negotiations and through diplomatic means,” said Ramaphosa in St Petersburg on Saturday at the 18th-century Konstantinovsky Palace.
“This war is having a negative impact on the African continent and indeed, on many other countries around the world,” Ramaphosa said.
Putin interrupted opening remarks by African leaders seeking to mediate in the Ukraine conflict to deliver a list of reasons why he believed many of their proposals were misguided.
He reiterated his position that Ukraine and the West had started the conflict long before Russia sent its armed forces over the border in February last year. He said Russia had never refused talks with the Ukrainian side, which had been blocked by Kyiv.
On Friday 16 June 2023, the delegation held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
Ukraine’s leader said after meeting the leaders that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdrew its forces from occupied Ukrainian territory.
“We have come to listen to you and through you to hear the voice of the Russian people,” said Comoros President Azali Assoumani, who currently heads the African Union, told Putin. “We wanted to encourage you to enter into negotiations with Ukraine.”[87]
A commentator tweeted:
You might not be aware of this, but there is an African Peace Initiative going on, led by Cyril Ramaphosa.
:You won't hear about it because NATO, the EU and the US don't actually want peace.[88]
Ukrainian internal advisors giving up in 2023
In, 2023, many internal advisors were leaking to western CCM that Zelensky was being used as buffer and pawn as they admitted to Time Magazine they never could win the war;
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The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war. “Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,” says one longtime member of his team. Another tells me that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.
But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians”
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“After his visit to Washington, TIME followed the President and his team back to Kyiv, hoping to understand how they would react to the signals they had received, especially the insistent calls for Zelensky to fight corruption inside his own government, and the fading enthusiasm for a war with no end in sight. On my first day in Kyiv, I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: “Angry.”
The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war. “Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,” says one longtime member of his team. Another tells me that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.
But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians” Simon Shuster (October 30, 2023) [89]
Jacob Dreizin, a former US/Army soldier who publishes military analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on his website, voiced concern that some Javelins that are sent to Ukraine will enter the black market and may be used to shoot down civilian airliners at some point in the future. A view that, before long, is starting to be shared by Interpol[90][91] and Europol.[92][93]
Hundreds of important Russian businessmen, military officers, family members and even advisors of President Putin were killed or committed suicide in and outside Russia, with nearly all survivors of these "suicides" hinting a possible assassination ring to be present in Russia.
Russian Mystery attacks
Russian mystery fires and bombings occurred since the start of the war, and have not been formally explained. There have been many notable bombing attacks on dozens of different buildings, including, churches, gas stations, oil wells, bridges, politicians homes, ammunition depots and more, hinting the Russian government to not be the prime suspect.[97]
Russian Sleeper Agents
According to German police, 2 German-Russian nationals were arrested in April of 2024 on suspicion of plotting sabotage attacks, including on U.S. military facilities, in what officials called a serious effort to undermine military support for Ukraine.
Authorities have searched the homes and workplaces of the two suspects who stand accused of working for the Russian FSB, discussing plots and bombing targets in Germany.[98]
↑The Russian MOD released documents on Twitter which they said prove the point (of a planned Ukrainian invasion). The "fact checker" PolitiFact (link), drawing on information provided by StopFake (link) said that that these documents speak about something completely different. English speaking writers on The Saker pointed out that: "it is highly unlikely that the Russian army would publish a fake that can be easily refuted. Besides, Kiev’s plans are indirectly confirmed by many people." the same author also notes: "Russian troops easily broke through the Ukrainian defenses elsewhere, reaching the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital and encircling the country’s second largest city, Kharkov. The question arises why the Ukrainians concentrated a powerful force near the Donbass republics instead of immediately blocking all dangerous directions in order to force the Russians into fighting exhausting battles along the border?" (link). Other commentators on The Saker pointed out, that: "Claims of [Ukrainian] “invasion” have been circulating on and off for the past 8 years [in the Donbass region], and started sounding louder in April of 2021" (link)
↑Vladimir Shamanov - retired Colonel General of the Russian Armed Forces, from May 2009 to October 2016 Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Airborne Troops, https://de.rt.com/europa/139630-luftlandetruppen-chef-ad-zum-verlauf-militaeroperation/ - automated translation: "In the interview, the general also acknowledged mistakes made by the military leadership. At the beginning of the operation, he said, the Russian army expected to be "greeted with flowers" in Ukraine. This "component" had already been overcome."
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